Private in-browser planning
Energy Price Scenario Risk Calculator
Starting values are hypothetical. Replace them with your own figures. Inputs stay in this browser and are not included in the energy inquiry.
- User-defined scenarios only; no probability, historical volatility measure or forecast.
- Use the quantity exposed to the modeled price and hold the period consistent.
Define the exposure you are testing
Use the amount of energy actually exposed to the variable price, not necessarily the whole account’s consumption. If part of a gas volume is fixed and only the rest floats, the open portion belongs in the scenario quantity. For electricity, confirm which components change with the index and which remain fixed under the specific contract.
Keep the quantity and unit rate on the same basis, such as kWh and dollars per kWh or therms and dollars per therm. The generic unit label allows either case but does not perform a conversion. Enter unchanged charges as a fixed dollar total for the selected period. Do not include the same component in both the base rate and the other-charges field.
How the scenario prices and costs are formed
Low price equals the base rate multiplied by one minus the selected decrease percentage. High price equals the base rate multiplied by one plus the increase percentage. Each scenario cost is quantity times its scenario rate plus unchanged charges. The tool shows the high case above base and the full low-to-high cost range.
For a hypothetical 100,000 kWh at $0.10 per kWh with $2,000 unchanged charges, the base case is $12,000. A twenty-percent decrease produces $0.08 and $10,000 total. A thirty-percent increase produces $0.13 and $15,000. The high case is $3,000 above base and the scenario range is $5,000. None of these numbers assigns a likelihood to the outcome.
Why this is not a market forecast
Actual energy prices respond to supply, demand, weather, fuel availability, infrastructure and other conditions. Their future path cannot be obtained by selecting a symmetric percentage around today’s assumed rate. This worksheet has no live price feed, historical series or statistical model; the percentages come entirely from the user.
Do not call the high case a worst case unless a separate analysis supports that boundary. Prices could move outside the chosen range, usage can change at the same time and contract components may respond differently. For a useful management exercise, choose cases that make the budget consequence visible and document why those particular changes were selected.
Compare budget resilience and procurement scope
Review the high-case dollar change against the amount the business can absorb. Then inspect the actual contract to understand whether the exposure is commodity, basis, delivery, volume tolerance or another component. A fixed-price offer may address one exposure while leaving others variable. This tool does not recommend a product or a hedge allocation.
Run separate cases when usage growth or a seasonal pattern matters. The annual electricity projection varies both usage and price, while the gas hedge-ratio tool identifies open volume. Keep each exercise’s period, source rates and assumptions in the procurement file. A clear scenario can support a decision discussion, but it should not be presented as a forecast, expected savings or evidence that a supplier offer is available.
Sources & scope
Primary references reviewed October 15, 2026. These sources support the stated concepts; actual tariffs, program rules and signed agreements govern the account. Decision examples and operational worksheets are original educational analysis.
- EIA: Electricity prices and factors affecting prices
Electricity pricing depends on fuel costs, weather, generation and grid costs, regulations and customer circumstances. No published average is used as a quote. - EIA: Factors affecting natural gas prices
Natural gas supply, demand, weather, storage and infrastructure can affect prices. No forecast or recommended hedge allocation is taken from this source.